Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Jim Sinclair Bets a Million Dollars Gold Price Will Hit $1650 before the 2nd Week in January 2011


One question that all gold investors want to know whether they be new gold investors or long term holders of gold bullion, is how high will the gold price go?

Jim Sinclair, noted gold expert, has really put his money where his mouth is on this topic. For years now Jim Sinclair has been calling for the gold price to reach at least $1650 during this gold bull market and has more recently commented that he thinks if anything his prediction is way too low.

Giving new meaning to the term commitment, Jim Sinclair has made a wager of $1,000,000 US dollars that the gold price will hit US$1650 before the 2nd week of January 2011.

Jim Sinclair was the original founder of the Sinclair Group of Companies in 1977, offering brokerage services with branches in New York , Kansas City, Toronto, Chicago, London and Geneva. That was sold in 1983. and Sinclair served as a Precious Metals Advisor to Hunt Oil and the Hunt family for the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for the $1 billion loan arranged by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volker. He’s also been a General Partner and Member of the Executive Committee of two New York Stock Exchange firms and President of the Sinclair Global Clearing Corporation (commodity clearing firm) and Global Arbitrage (derivative dealer in metals and currencies).

Sinclair is the author of numerous articles, three books dealing with a variety of investment subjects, including precious metals, trading strategies and geopolitical events. He is often called to speak at gold investment conferences and his commentary on gold and other financial issues garners extensive media coverage at home and abroad.

In January 2003, Mr. Sinclair’s "Jim Sinclairs MineSet," was launched and now hosts his gold commentary as a free service to the gold community.

On this website Sinclair makes the announcement.
"My position on timing and price is that Gold will trade at USD $1650 before the second week of January 2011."

"I am offering a $1,000,000USD wager to a financially qualified party that this will occur within the stated timeframe. Any party on Bloomberg, CNBC or CNN-Business stating an opposite opinion on the price of gold should be informed of this challenge."

"Please communicate to ANY vocal bearish so-called gold expert that I challenge them to put their money on their views."

"Any commentator unable to financially meet this challenge should not be opining. If they really knew the gold and currency market they could easily meet the challenge."
This means that if the gold price does NOT reach $1650 USD on or before the end of the 1st week of January 2011, then Sinclair will have to cough up the princely sum of One Million US dollars to anyone who takes up his bet.

Now … is that confidence or is that confidence?
He goes on to say:
"I am relying on you CIGAs to forward this challenge to any vocal bear, suggesting they stop flapping their lips by putting up or shutting up. It is one thing to hide behind a computer screen. It is another to bet
the ranch on the view you promote."

"The technical procedure of a serious wager is:
1. Prove you can in fact wage the challenge by an attorney's letter.
2. Segregate the funds in cash or near cash kind in the hands of your attorney.
3. Execute an agreed upon binding contract stating the terms of the wager."
As has been the case for the last 8 years while the gold price has been rising year after year, there is no shortage of financial commentators and so called experts providing their advice that the gold bull market is over, every time there is a correction in the gold price.

For example, this investment advice titled "Goldman Sachs says sell gold in 2008", reported by Reuters:
LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Investors should sell gold in 2008 to take advantage of falling prices as the dollar steadies, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday, naming the strategy as one of its top 10 tips for next year.
If these financial commentators are so sure of their forecasts they should be more than happy to take Jim Sinclair up on his generous offer to double their money in just 3 years time.

Perhaps someone may be courageous enough to take Sinclair up on his challenge, but the way the long term gold trend is going, his $1,000,000 would be better invested in gold bullion.

If Jim Sinclair is correct with his forecast that the gold price will reach $1650 by 2nd week of 2011, gold investors who buy gold today at $900 will be the ones who win, as they stand to make a profit in USD of at least 83% in the next 3 years.

2 comments:

SNair said...

I am no expert in this, but wouldn't it make sense for someone to take the bet AND invest $1M today in gold. If it doubles or more, as Jim predicts, you give away $1M to Jim and still have $1M or more. If it does not double, but halves, say, you still have $1.5M after taking $1M from Jim. Am I missing something?

Neha Tanna said...

I am not expert either being just 23 barely I can predict, but some of my thoughts.The way US economy is moving, it is obvious, that Gold will pass that value way before 2011 in my opinion, here is several Reson I think :
1) US economy has world wide impact, $ value is falling down, some of UAE and Chinese company doesn't accept US dollar, no one wants $ to fall down suddenly, but can not help either.
2) Middle east issues are not easy to get US out of it, and those countries have kind of control over oil prices, even if US can drill oil, it can't happen overnight.
3) Falling dollar will cause inflation issue, in history Gold has always survived inflation.
4) Recently Banks are failing and home prices are falling, stocks are not great either, IRS is strick for foreign investment (referring to swiss bank issue, where you have to report anything over 10 k to IRS), Oil is highly depending polical stuff (US and IRAN talks), which leaves only gold as a safe investment, once you buy you own it.
5)Who do you think can save current condition, Federal can cut interest rate adn bump up inflation, or else can raise it and get more homes in forecloser.

The situation is like Snake tried to eat mouse, can't spill it out, can't diegest either.